Democratic Transitions: Modes and Outcomes by Sujian Guo & Gary A. Stradiotto

Author:Sujian Guo & Gary A. Stradiotto [Guo, Sujian & Stradiotto, Gary A.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9781317751069
Google: aDNEAwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 21886967
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2013-05-31T00:00:00+00:00

GDP per capita and annual economic growth rates

Perhaps the most prolific and important literature concerning the survival of democracy centers on economic growth.7 Thus, controlling for per capita GDP is important because of the controversy about whether wealth helps democracy to consolidate (Rueschemeyer 1991, Diamond 1992), or merely assists democracies in surviving after a transition (Przeworski and Limongi 1997). Regardless of the causal factors that lead to democratization, higher levels of per capita GDP, according to a widely accepted literature, should help prevent slippage back into autocracy. Przeworski (1991) states, “. . . the eventual survival of . . . new democracies will depend to a large extent on their economic performance” (95). In a later work, Przeworski et al. (2000) suggest that once countries transition to democracy, those with higher levels of per capita GDP are likely to remain democratic. Epstein et al. (2006), who challenge Przeworski on a number of points, also agree that “. . . higher GDP per capita reduces the probability that countries fall out of democracy” (564). Rising living standards, growth of private ownership and of the urban middle classes and improved education arguably constitute the main forces that lead people to support democratic procedures (Evans and Whitefield 1995); this support of democratic procedures not only serves as an impetus to democracy but also facilitates its survival. Therefore, we expect the coefficient on per capita GDP to be positive and significant. In addition, we control for GDP growth rate and expect higher growth rates to be associated with higher democratic quality and greater longevity. Intuitively, a regime that provides strong growth would seem to suffer less from legitimacy problems and therefore be at a lower risk of reversion. The authoritative source of historical GDP is obtained from Angus Maddison.8 Through use of this dataset, we have access to per capita GDP for all countries of the world from the start date of our study (1900) through 2003. We calculate the corresponding growth rates based on the dollar changes in GDP.

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